Population Council Research that makes a difference

Population and Development Review

December 2011, Vol. 37, No. 4

Articles

• Harvesting the Biosphere: The Human Impact / Vaclav Smil
  
  The human species has evolved to dominate the biosphere: global anthropomass is now an order of magnitude greater than the mass of all wild terrestrial mammals. As a result, our dependence on harvesting the products of photosynthesis for food, animal feed, raw materials, and energy has grown to make substantial global impacts. During the past two millennia these harvests, and changes of land use due to deforestation and conversions of grasslands and wetlands, have reduced the stock of global terrestrial plant mass by as much as 45 percent, with the twentieth-century reduction amounting to more than 15 percent. Current annual harvests of phytomass have been a significant share of the global net primary productivity (NPP, the total amount of new plant tissues created by photosynthesis). Some studies put the human appropriation of NPP (the ratio of these two variables) as high as 40 percent but the measure itself is problematic. Future population growth and improved quality of life will result in additional claims on the biosphere, but options to accommodate these demands exist without severely compromising the irreplaceable biospheric services. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 613–636] (offsite link*)

• Comparing Relative Effects of Education and Economic Resources on Infant Mortality in Developing Countries / Elsie R. Pamuk, Regina Fuchs, Wolfgang Lutz
  
  Research on the social determinants of health has often considered education and economic resources as separate indicators of socioeconomic status. From a policy perspective, however, it is important to understand the relative strength of the effect of these social factors on health outcomes, particularly in developing countries. It is also important to examine not only the impact of education and economic resources of individuals, but also whether community and country levels of these factors affect health outcomes. This analysis uses multilevel regression models to assess the relative effects of education and economic resources on infant mortality at the family, community, and country level using data from Demographic and Health Surveys in 43 low- and lower-middle-income countries. We find strong effects for both per capita gross national income and completed secondary education at the country level, but a greater impact of education within families and communities. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 637–664] (offsite link*)
  
  

• Son Preference in Rural China: Patrilineal Families and Socioeconomic Change / Rachel Murphy, Ran Tao, Xi Lu
  
  This article draws on a survey conducted in six provinces in summer 2008 to investigate the determinants of son preference in rural China. The analysis confirms the conventional wisdom that son preference is embedded within patrilineal family structures and practices. We extend our analysis by exploring specific aspects of variation within patrilineal family culture. We find that the patrilineal group (clan) composition of villages and family participation in practices such as building ancestral halls and updating genealogies significantly influence son preference. Yet even though son preference is embedded within patrilineal family culture, our analysis suggests that over time the attenuation of son preference is likely. This is because determinants associated with socioeconomic change—for instance, higher levels of education, direct exposure to official policy education materials, higher income (a proxy for rural industrialization), and agricultural mechanization—all attenuate son preference. Being younger and female are also associated with weaker son preference, and both characteristics are likely to interact with education and industrialization to further dilute son preference in the longer term. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that concerted efforts are needed to ameliorate institutional discrimination against rural people in welfare provisioning and in labor markets, and to promote multiple dimensions of gender equality, including in land rights, wage rates, and education. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 665–690] (offsite link*)
  
  

• Economic Inequality and Child Stunting in Bangladesh and Kenya: An Investigation of Six Hypotheses / Gary W. Reinbold
  
  Consistent with the increasing focus on issues of equity in developing countries, I extend the literature analyzing the relationship between economic inequality and individual health to the developing world. Using survey data from Bangladesh and Kenya with economic status measured by a wealth index and with three different geographic definitions of community, I analyze six competing hypotheses for how economic inequality may be related to stunting among children younger than 5 years old. I find little support for the predominant hypothesis that economic inequality as measured by a Gini index is an important predictor of individual health. Instead, I find that the difference between a household's wealth and the mean household wealth in the community is the measure of economic inequality that is most closely related to stunting in these countries. In particular, a 1 standard deviation increase in household wealth relative to the community mean is associated with a 30–32 percent decrease in the odds of stunting in Bangladesh and a 16–21 percent decrease in the odds of stunting in Kenya. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 691–719] (offsite link*)
  
  
• Population Momentum Across the Demographic Transition / Laura Blue, Thomas J. Espenshade
  
  Population momentum is the main driver of global population growth today, and this makes an appreciation of momentum critical to understanding contemporary worldwide growth dynamics. This article traces population momentum along with two recently defined measures of momentum decomposed—stable and nonstable momentum—across the demographic transition. We use historical data and population projections from 16 countries to illustrate some previously ignored empirical regularities of the demographic transition in both the developed and the developing world. We also demonstrate the dynamic nature of stable and nonstable momentum, as changes in stable momentum lead to predictable changes in current and future nonstable momentum. These results suggest that momentum, which by definition is measured at a point in time, can also be considered as a process that unfolds over time. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 721–747] (offsite link*)
  
  

Data and Perspectives

• The Association of Television and Radio with Reproductive Behavior / Charles F. Westoff, Dawn A. Koffman
  
  This note analyzes the association between media exposure and reproductive behavior in 48 developing countries. A summary of part of a more extensive Demographic and Health Surveys report, it shows strong connections between media exposure and the use of modern contraception, the number of children desired, and recent fertility. Television viewing is particularly important; it is assumed to expose viewers to aspects of modern life that compete with traditional attitudes toward the family and is associated with greater use of modern contraceptive methods, with a desire for fewer children, and with lower fertility. These relationships are particularly noteworthy because the data measure only the frequency of media exposure with no information about its content. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 749–759] (offsite link*)
  
  
• The Impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic on Kinship Resources for Orphans in Zimbabwe / Emilio Zagheni
  
  The extended family has been recognized as a major safety net for orphans in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the mortality crisis associated with HIV/AIDS may drastically reduce the availability of relatives and thus undermine traditional forms of mutual support. In this article, the microsimulator SOCSIM is used to estimate and project quantities such as the number of living uncles, aunts, siblings, and grandparents available to orphans. The model is calibrated to the setting of Zimbabwe, using data from Demographic and Health Surveys and estimates and projections of demographic rates from the United Nations. The article shows that there is a lag of more than ten years between the peak in orphanhood prevalence and the peak in scarcity of grandparents for orphans. The results indicate that a generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic has a prolonged impact on children and orphans that extends well beyond the peak in mortality. A rapid increase in the number of orphans is followed by a steady reduction in the number of living grandparents for orphans. Consequently, the burden of double orphans (both of whose parents have died) is likely to shift to uncles and aunts. In Zimbabwe, the number of living uncles and aunts per double orphan decreased between 1980 and 2010, but it is expected to increase progressively during the next few decades. Changes in kinship structure have important social consequences that should be taken into account when seeking to address the lack of care for orphans. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 761–783] (offsite link*)
  
  

Archives

• Thomas Perronet Thompson on the Force of Habit and Opinion on Family Size
  
  

  What was the extent of knowledge about birth control in populations prior to the demographic transition? That question has been a matter of heated debate among demographic historians. (It remains a relevant issue in today's high-fertility societies: family planning programs are largely premised on the belief that substantial proportions of births in such societies are "unwanted," and that inadequate information about and lack of access to effective methods of contraception are major obstacles to fertility decline.) In the case of historical Europe, the predominant view has been that marital fertility was essentially unchecked, with the region's comparatively low total fertility mainly attributable to a property constraint on marriage and stern sanctions against illegitimate births—in the interests of preserving family holdings or avoiding charges on the community. The passage reprinted below, from an early-nineteenth-century English pamphlet, offers a different picture of motivation and means in influencing family size—very much in line with the alternative interpretation of fertility levels today: that they are determined not by inability to control births but by the demand for children. Motivation, it declares, derives from the need to meet the society's expectations of behavior appropriate to one’s social status, a status potentially threatened by improvident childbearing. And the means are simply taken for granted: they call for no special attention and thus, implicitly, present no particular obstacle. Aside from the invidious linking to nationalities, it would be hard to surpass in succinctness the author's characterization of the force of opinion and habit on family size:

  In his hours of prosperity, [the Englishman] will to a certainty solace himself with bacon, and most probably venture upon beef; and as this absorbs a greater portion of his income in what he views as necessary to his individual existence, it proportionally reduces his disposition to burthen himself with new mouths. If the Irishman had the prospect of all this bacon and beef, he would view it as convertible into potatoes for a family like a patriarch's. The Englishman thinks it but decency to swallow all, and omits the family.

  The pamphlet is titled The True Theory of Rent, in opposition to Mr. Ricardo and others, Being an exposition of fallacies on rent, tithes, &c. In the form of a Review of Mr. Mill's Elements of Political Economy. At first issued anonymously in 1826, later editions (published by the Westminster Review) acknowledged its author, T. Perronet Thompson. It defended a view of rent ascribed to Adam Smith in opposition to that of Ricardo. (The Elements referred to in the title is an 1821 book by James Mill.)

  Thomas Perronet Thompson (1783–1869) had a varied career as a British military officer, colonial governor (of Sierra Leone), and parliamentarian. He is mostly known as a radical reformer, among other causes opposing slavery and supporting universal suffrage. [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 785–788] (offsite link*)
  
  

Book Reviews [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 789–795]

• The Classical Foundations of Population Thought: From Plato to Quesnay and Economic, Social and Demographic Thought in the XIXth Century: The Population Debate from Malthus to Marx / Yves Charbit
  Reviewed by Philip Kreager (offsite link*)
• Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries / Eileen M. Crimmins, Samuel H. Preston, and Barney Cohen (eds.)
  Reviewed by Graziella Caselli (offsite link*)
• Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century / Eric Kaufmann
  Reviewed by Dennis Hodgson (offsite link*)
  
  

Short Reviews [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 796–800]

• Indigenous Peoples and Demography: The Complex Relation between Identity and Statistics / Per Axelsson and Peter Sköld (eds.) (offsite link*)
• Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty / Abhijit V. Banerjee and Ester Duflo (offsite link*)
• Imploding Populations in Japan and Germany: A Comparison / Florian Coulmas and Ralph Lützeler (eds.) (offsite link*)
• Rethinking Aging: Growing Old and Living Well in an Overtreated Society / Nortin M. Hadler (offsite link*)
• Energy Myths and Realities: Bringing Science to the Policy Debate / Vaclav Smil (offsite link*)
• Explorations in the Economics of Aging / David Wise (ed.) (offsite link*)

Documents

• The United Nations on the Rising Share of Deaths from Non-Communicable Diseases
  
  

  Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCD)—principally cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease—have been on a strongly upward trend. They now account for nearly two-thirds of all deaths worldwide. In large part this has resulted from success in curbing infectious and parasitic diseases, which in turn has added to the size of the population exposed to other causes of death and to the duration of exposure. But it also reflects an increased prevalence in developing countries of certain behavioral risk factors, such as smoking and obesity. The upward trend is expected to continue.
  
  This situation was the subject of a two-day High-Level Meeting at the UN General Assembly in September, attended by some 30 heads of government and more than 100 health ministers and public health experts. (The only prior such meeting in the area of health was concerned with HIV/AIDS.) At the meeting the Secretary-General presented a report titled Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases (UN doc. A/66/83), from which the passages below are excerpted (paras. 3–20 and 36–39). In it, the NCD trend is described not in terms of its inevitability but as a "rising epidemic." The causes are mainly seen as the spread of unhealthy lifestyles common in the developed world to middle- and low-income countries. Underlying reasons include "urbanization and the globalization of trade and product marketing, particularly for tobacco, food and alcohol." Yet "because the risk factors . . . are part of everyday life, many people fail to see the epidemic or recognize that it is largely preventable."
  
  Both the Secretary-General's report and the "Political Declaration" adopted by the meeting set out a detailed set of recommended measures to reduce the impact of major NCD risk factors, identified as "tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and harmful use of alcohol." In the Declaration, for example, governments are urged to "recognize the fundamental conflict of interest between the tobacco industry and public health," to promote "the WHO Global Strategy to Reduce the Harmful Use of Alcohol," to "work towards reducing the use of salt in the food industry," and, further afield, to "promote, protect and support breastfeeding." [37, no. 4 (Dec 11): 801–805] (offsite link*)

* Journal subscribers will be able to access a PDF of the article online; nonsubscribers will be given access after paying a fee.

To read abstracts or search contents of previous volumes, visit Wiley-Blackwell (volumes 1999–2010) or JSTOR (volumes 1975–2007).

Population and Development Review

Demographic Transition and Its Consequences
Lee and Reher (eds.), 2011
Explores aspects of the transitional and post-transition landscape from a variety of disciplinary perspectives, covering both modern industrial societies and emerging economies, and taking note of the circumstances of latecomers in the transition process. (contents)
vii + 275 pp., $13.50

Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth
Prskawetz, Bloom, and Lutz (eds.), 2008
Studies included cover the broad economic significance of the global aging of the work force. (more) (contents)
vii + 326 pp., $25.00

The Political Economy of Global Population Change, 1950–2050
Demeny and McNicoll (eds.), 2006
Explores the international political dimensions of the population explosion and its aftermath. (contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
viii + 288 pp., $21.00

Aging, Health, and Public Policy: Demographic and Economic Perspectives
Waite (ed.), 2004
Explores the economic, demographic, and epidemiological aspects of population aging trends and consequences. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 265 pp., $21.00

Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives
Carey and Tuljapurkar (eds.), 2003
Explores the subject of the life span, both human and animal, by bringing together research conducted by scholars from many disciplines. (downloadable contents)
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 293 pp., $18.00

Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis
Lutz, Prskawetz, and Sanderson (eds.), 2002
This book represents the first systematic collection of population–environment methodologies and includes eight essays by demographers, social scientists, and environmental scientists.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 251 pp., $18.00

Global Fertility Transition
Bulatao and Casterline (eds.), 2001
Explores the factors underlying fertility transition, analyzes recent trends, and considers the implications for future projections.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xi + 340 pp., $18.00

Population and Economic Change in East Asia
Chu and Lee (eds.), 2000
This volume, which analyzes the interplay between economic and demographic trends in East Asia, is novel in treating population aging as an integral part of the region's demographic transition.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 320 pp., $15.00

Frontiers of Population Forecasting
Lutz, Vaupel, and Ahlburg (eds.), 1998
Reexamination of the procedures of population forecasting in response to emerging demands. Addresses key issues: What population characteristics beyond the standard variables of age and sex should routinely enter population forecasts? When should forecasts take account of economic or environmental feedbacks? How is forecasting accuracy to be assessed and what is the past record? What is the state of the art of stochastic time series modeling of population change? How can users cope with probability distributions? What scope is there for application of methods to incorporate expert opinion into population forecasting?
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 199 pp., $15.00

Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories
Casterline, Lee, and Foote (eds.), 1996
Assessment of substantial and unappreciated changes in US fertility behavior during the past two decades, with new frameworks and theories for interpreting these changes.
Available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 340 pp., $20.00

The New Politics of Population: Conflict and Consensus in Family Planning
Finkle and McIntosh (eds.), 1994
An examination of the major issues and actors—political and religious leaders, feminists, and others—and the events that have shaped global trends in family planning policies and programs in recent decades.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 276 pp.

Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options
Davis and Bernstam (eds.), 1990
Explores impending problems and interrelations between population trends, resource use, and environmental consequences.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
xii + 421 pp.

Rural Development and Population: Institutions and Policy
McNicoll and Cain (eds.), 1989
Investigation of the ways in which the institutional configurations of societies influence the relationships between population dynamics and rural social and economic change.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 366 pp.

Population and Resources in Western Intellectual Traditions
Teitelbaum and Winter (eds.), 1988
An examination of the intersection of science and ideology in the development of Western thought on population, resources, and the environment since the industrial revolution.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 310 pp.

Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies
Davis, Bernstam, and Ricardo-Campbell (eds.), 1986
Systematic discussions of the demographic effects of below-replacement fertility with efforts to explain its social origins, to determine the likely societal consequences, and to assess potential policy responses.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
x + 360 pp.

Child Survival: Strategies for Research
Mosley and Chen (eds.), 1984
In all poor countries, malnutrition and infectious diseases are the major biological processes leading to child deaths; but the social, economic, and environmental determinants of the variations in these conditions in different societies are poorly understood. This supplement contains papers by specialists within two separate disciplines—demography and epidemiology—primarily concerned with investigating such topics.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
ix + 416 pp.

Income Distribution and the Family
Ben-Porath (ed.), 1982
Addresses the important question of how family composition and related demographic processes affect and are affected by the generation and distribution of income in developing countries, and examines the difficult technical and conceptual issues involved in analyzing these relationships.
Out of print; available online from JSTOR (offsite link)
vii + 248 pp.

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